城市交通能源结构与碳达峰情景分析——以南京为例
作者:
作者单位:

1:南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院 2:中央民族大学民族学与社会学学院

作者简介:

周德群,男,博士,教育部长江学者特聘教授,博士生导师,

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

U491

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金重大项目(22ZDA113)。


Scenarios Analysis of Energy Structure and Carbon Neutrality of City Transportation System——Taking Nanjing as an Example
Author:
Affiliation:

1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics;2. School of Ethnology and Sociology, Minzu University of China

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    摘要:

    交通部门能源消费结构低碳化转型是城市范围内实现碳达峰与碳中和目标的关键。而交通部门在用能结构、排放形式、功能等方面具有多重差异性,现有研究往往基于宏观模型测算,无法充分体现交通能源消费的差异性和复杂性,本研究基于城市交通能源消费数据,以南京市为例,测算了不同类型城市交通CO_2排放总量,并针对南京市是否可以在2030年前实现交通碳达峰目标展开讨论。结果表明:城市交通能源结构低碳化转型对南京市在2030年前实现城市交通碳达峰具有决定性的作用,私人交通工具使用强度降低对达峰时间影响较小,对降低峰值作用较大,机动车排放控制技术的发展可以有效降低峰值但对达峰时间无明显影响。

    Abstract:

    For the transport agencies, it is critical to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in urban area via achieving low-carbon transformation in the energy consumption structure. However, as different agencies are greatly varied in energy structure, emission forms, functions and other aspects, the existing research, often based on macro model measurement, cannot fully reflect the difference and complexity of transportation energy consumption. This study is conducted on the basis of the data of urban transportation energy consumption and takes Nanjing as an example to measure the total amount of CO2 emissions of different urban transportations and discusses whether Nanjing can achieve the traffic carbon peak target by 2030. The results show that, firstly, the low-carbon transformation of urban transportation energy structure plays a decisive role for Nanjing to achieve the target mentioned above; secondly, the reduced intensity of private transportation has less impact on the time to achieve the carbon peak, but has a great impact on lowing the carbon peak value; lastly, the development of motor vehicle emission control technology can effectively reduce the carbon peak value, with less obvious impact on the time to achieve the carbon peak.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-03-16
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