灰色预测:思想、方法与应用
作者:
作者单位:

1:南京航空航天大学灰色系统研究所 2:南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院

作者简介:

谢乃明,男,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为灰色系统理论、复杂装备研制管理、工业工程。

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中图分类号:

C931

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(72171116); 科技部外国专家文教项目(G2022181003L); 中央高校基本科研业务费(NP2020022)


Grey Forecast: Mechanism, Models and Applications
Author:
Affiliation:

1. Grey System Research Institute, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics;2. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

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    摘要:

    系统预测是科学决策和管理优化的前提条件,灰色预测模型既是一类新的预测方法也是灰色系统理论的核心研究内容之一。本文深度解构灰色预测模型的建模思想,总结灰色预测模型建模分析步骤,并根据模型形式将灰色预测模型总结为具有线性结构特征和其他类型,考虑模型的形式是连续型、离散型和建模变量是单变量、多变量情形,进一步细分为连续型单变量灰色预测模型、离散型单变量灰色预测模型、连续型多变量灰色预测模型、离散型多变量灰色预测模型;最后,综述了灰色预测模型的理论和应用进展,以期呈现灰色预测模型和应用的前沿动态。

    Abstract:

    System forecast is the precondition of scientific decision-making and management optimization. As to grey forecast model, it is not only a new kind of forecasting approach, but also one of the core topics of grey sys? tem theory. This paper deeply deconstructs the modeling mechanism of grey forecasting models, summarizes the procedures of the grey forecast modeling process and, depending on characteristics of the models, dividing the grey forecast models into linear structure and nonlinear structures. Considering models’forms are continu? ous or discrete and the modeling variables are single variable or multivariable, grey forecast models are further subdivided into continuous single variable grey forecast model, discrete single variable grey forecast model, con? tinuous multivariable grey forecast model and discrete multivariable grey forecast model. In the last part of the paper, theoretical and practical progress of grey forecast models are summarized so as to present the frontiers of grey forecast models and applications.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-03-16
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